Stock Phoenix’s Nifty analysis for the Month of November – 2019
Posted On November 1, 2019
Nifty on Fibonacci
We will study the Nifty movement with the help of Fibonacci numbers. It’s one of the moves important and powerful indicators that will help us to arrive at the Targets for the reversal trend. It’s drawn by arriving at the top and bottom of the trend and it’s drawn to arrive at the next set of support and resistance. The higher the Time Frame, the better the results. Here we have taken the Daily charts to draw the Fibonacci Numbers. The drawing remains the same until we get a new high or new low by Nifty. Numbers 38.2% and 61.8% are considered as very crucial in the Fibonacci series.
Nifty Analysis :
As predicted in last month’s blog, Nifty gave a very good bull run after the initial downfall for the first week of October. And it made a very good move in the last week of the expiry and it was about to touch the previous swing high which was placed at 11981. As we have reached very close the previous swing high at this was at a 100% level on the Fibonacci Levels.
Since the high is not broken, the same set of numbers is still valid for the Month of November as well. And we will study the charts and arrive at the new set of numbers.
Currently Nifty is at the levels above 78.60% and close to the 100% Levels.
Targets for the Month of November- 2019
As the Nifty is above the important zone of 61.80% and very close to the levels of 100%, Now we should wait and see if Nifty crosses the levels of 100% and Travel towards the extension levels at 123.80 and 138.20%. The Targets numbers are clearly defined in the above-embedded picture.
At the same time, the gap between 100% and 61.80% is too high, so we have arrived at the intermediate support with the help of 78.60% and this number comes at 11694. So now the upper range is confirmed once we break 100% and downside we have support only at 78.60%. if the Nifty breaks the level of 78.60, then we can expect the target of 61.80% then the downside targets are 50% and 38.20%.
What are the possibilities of Nifty breaking the low or travel upside in the Month of November?
Nifty has made enough bottom in the Month of September and October and had a sharp recovery in the month of October and reached towards the lifetime high. Now the Index has to hold above 100% and cross the lifetime high which is placed at 12103 and travel for further targets. As we have already had a good rally for the entire month of October, there may be a consolidation phase or some small correction mode before we could break the lifetime high. However, it all depends on the National and Global scenario. If we don’t see any news which affects majorly, then we may expect a huge buying coming in from various investors. On the Monthly expiry, Nifty is bull bullish mode and it was a support to hit the high levels, At the same time if we ended up in Global negative news, then that trigger sell-off and most counters and we will end in the red. now we will have a small halt on the rally and we may see a little bit of correction and upside is confirmed only when we break the high which was made on 31st of October.
Even though the Fibonacci numbers are very accurate, the Fibonacci analysis does not tell anything about the timeline to achieving the targets. For the time frame, we have to take the help of the Nifty Option chain. The near term target can arrive with the help of the Option chain.
Weekly Expiry – 07th of November
Today is the first day of the month and we cannot arrive at the exact target for Index. However, we can arrive at the overall picture with the help of Option chain writing. Looking at the option chain, we can arrive at the below inference.
We can see a good amount of support is getting built in the zone of 11800. Hence these levels will act as support for the first-week expiry. At the same time, we could also see that resistance is getting built at the levels of 11900. So a good swing movement can be expected between 11800 and 11900 on the expiry. The overall PCR ratio is showing Natural sentiment. Now we have to see if Index holds 11800 on the 1st of October and travell towards 11900 zones. And we may even see a consolidation phase and Option premium decay twill start. Now we should wait and watch as to how the market will react to the news which occurred on the last day of expiry. Stay tuned with Stock Phoenix Telegram Channel for more live updates.
It’s too early to predict on Monthly Expiry. The overall PCR ratio suggests Bullish. As of now, we could see strong support is getting built up at the zones of 11700, 11600 and resistance at the levels of 11800 and 12000. Looks like 11700 will be a major support for Nifty for the month of November and this is also close to the Fibonacci Number. Breaking the high of October 31st high will lead to a break of a lifetime high and give a big round of buying from all counter. We will get more clarity overall once we pass on the first week of Expiry.
Immediate Target and resistance
Upside Targets: 11981, 12103 and 12299 (Above 11900).
Downside Targets: 11694, 11468 and 11309 (Below 11855)
News that will affect the Nifty Movement
As you are aware that we are on the series of news is coming from the Central government and for sure all those will hit a positive sentiment in the market. The Inflow has just started FII, However again we are hitting some negative news from the global. We have to wait and watch as when the inflow will continue by FII which will boost the market. The downward journey of Auto Sectors is had just halted and we have seen some recovery in few counters. PSU bank yet to show the upside movement. The pharma sector has beaten up badly and we saw some recovery in the month of October. Housing Finance Companies are gone through series of news, We should watch as to how the month of October for these companies. So overall we are eyeing at the upside move ahead after a small consolidation.
Conclusion form Stock Phoenix :
We see Index taking pause at this phase and stay on consolidation mode or a small correction in the near term and expecting the index to break the high and travel towards one more lifetime high. Recovery for the small-cap and Mid Cap is still due. Let’s wait and how and what market shows ahead for us. Play safe on the intraday and avoid carry forwarding any kind of option for the next day. And we have a very good time on the Small Cap and Mid Caps on the investment side. Almost all the small-cap and mid-caps are fallen massively and it has stopped falling further and it is a good sign that we can get very good stocks at an attractive price. As already index is close to the lifetime high, the recovery of Mid Cap and Small-cap is long due.
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