Nifty on Fibonacci
We will study the Nifty movement with the help of Fibonacci numbers. It’s one of the moves important and powerful indicators that will help us to arrive at the Targets for the reversal trend. It’s drawn by arriving at the top and bottom of the trend and it’s drawn to arrive at the next set of support and resistance. The higher the Time Frame, the better the results. Here we have taken the Daily charts to draw the Fibonacci Numbers. The drawing remains the same until we get a new high or new low by Nifty. Numbers 38.2% and 61.8% are considered as very crucial in the Fibonacci series.
Nifty Analysis :
Nifty was in very narrow range for whole month of August with Negative basis through out the month and broken multiple support zones towards the downside. The strong support of 10800 was broken and Nifty gave a new low of 10637. After making low of 10637, Index showed a good sign of reversal. However it could not cross the 38.20% level and closed the month below the levels. As we have got new low, the old values gets invalid and we have drawn a new Fibonacci levels with the help of High which is made on 5th of July and low which was made on 23rd of August. This drawing remains same as long as we do not break the low of 10637.
Currently Nifty is at the levels between 23.60% and 38.20%. Nifty has to cross the levels of 38.20% for the next level of the target on the upper side which is 50.00% and 61.80%. It should not break the low of 10637. Below 10637 we are looking at the crazy downside and the downside number looks scary till the levels of 10500 , 10400 and 10000.
Targets for the Month of September – 2019
As we now arrived at a support zone in between two Fibonacci Numbers, Now we can easily arrive at the next set of targets. If the Nifty stays above the zone of 10954, we can expect the first Target as 11150, the second target of 11210 which is 200 days moving average which is very important. Once the important level of 11200 is taken out, then the Nifty target is open till 11309 and 11468. And the levels at 50% will not act as strong resistance.
At the same time if the Nifty breaks the zone 10954 then we can see the first target as 10637. The index will start bouncing back from the zones of 10637. Any closing below 10637 will give room for the downside to the levels of 10500 and 10400. If we look at the charts, ideally we have support at every 100 points below 10400 till 10000.
What are the possibilities of Nifty breaking the low or travel upside in the Month of September?
Nifty has made enough bottom in the Month of August and we are in oversold territory. some sort of technical bounce back should happen and we had already seen the reversal and Index is trading above 23.80% levels. However, it all depends on the National and Global scenario. If we don’t see any news which affects majorly, we can expect Nifty to hold the low and travel towards the north side and we should be seeing a good recovery from here on. If we end up getting some negative news, then we can plan for further downside targets as explained.
Even though the Fibonacci numbers are very accurate, the Fibonacci analysis does not tell anything about the timeline to achieving the targets. For the time frame, we have to take the help of the Nifty Option chain. The near term target can arrive with the help of Option chain.
Weekly Expiry – 05th of September
Today is the first day of the month and we cannot arrive at the exact target for Index. However, we can arrive at the overall picture with the help of Option chain writing. Looking at the option chain, we can arrive at the below inference.
We can see a good amount of support is getting built in the zone of 11000. Hence 11000 will act as crucial support for the second week of September. And at the same time, we also have resistance at the levels of 11100. The overall PCR ratio is showing neutral sentiment. Now we have to see if Index holds 11000. And being Monday is holiday and we have some positive news from India and some Negative news globally. Now we should wait and watch as how Market will react to the different news. Stay tuned with Stock Phoenix Telegram Channel for more live updates.
Monthly Expiry
It’s too early to predict on Monthly Expiry. The overall PCR ratio suggests bullish. As of now, we could see strong support is getting built up at the zones of 11000, 10800 , 10700 and 10600 and resistance at the levels of 11200 and 10700. We see much support zones on Monthly chain when compare to the resistance zones. However, it’s too early to arrive at this conclusion. However, the good part is even on the monthly expiry the support lies in the zone of 11000. So the chances of hitting 38.20% and 50% are high and we may head even 61.80% which is 11468.
Immediate Target and resistance
- Upside Targets: 11150, 11210, 11309 and 11468 (Above 10954).
- Downside Targets: 10637, 10500, 10400 and 10000 (Below 10954)
News that will affect the Nifty Movement
As you are aware that we are on the series of news such as changes in Tax slabs, downward journey of Auto Sectors, Infra related news and other banking-related news. So this factor will affect the Movement of Index. So we have to keep this factor in the coming week. So overall we are eyeing at the volatile month ahead and we might see a good recovery if we get enough positive news from National and globally.
Conclusion form Stock Phoenix :
We see Index bullish on near term and expecting index to recover from the low and give some sort of relief. Let’s wait and how and what market shows ahead for us. Play safe on the intraday and avoid carry forwarding any kind of option for the next day. And we may not even get a good time to start your investment portfolio in the Month of September as well. Almost all the small-cap and mid-caps are fallen massively and still falling nonstop. Once we see a sign of recovery in Index, these also will follow the big boss and we should take advantage of this and start our strong holding on Investment for the next big round of move.
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73 Comments. Leave new
Really nice write up.
Thanks for the knowledge !
Again a fantastic analysis and glad to see Nifty Bullish. Thanks for the blog Sir.
Good analysis. Going by the trade wars, nifty may slip to 10,800 levels and bounce back to 11,400 levels. Then again it may touch new lows a.nd break 10,000. May go down till 9,500 levels to touch the old trend line starting from 2008 lows. But this msy happen in couple of months and not immediately. With that the bearishness should end and the Mother of all bull run may start next year to ensure Sensex to touch 1,00,000 in the next 5 years.
thanks for nifty analysis sir, waiting for this video …the learning which had in sessions and your advice keep us away from losses.
sir please add your view on Bank nifty as well …..
Very informative analysis. Thank you, Sir
This very useful information. It’s helpful for taking decision for trading.
Thanks..
It is really helpful
Great Analysis. One can trade cautiously keeping in mind these numbers. Keep up the good work Stock Phoenix.
Comment
As always great work done by SP team.
Appreciate the efforts to do it on a consistent basis.
Thanks once again for your support.
It’s better to wait & watch this week. Based on the analysis in the blog, I have personally decided to only paper trade in this week. Unless there is a positive news flow globally Nifty is not going to go into a decisive uptrend.
As mentioned by prabhu sir, fibonnaci numbers along with option chain data is clearly showing indecisive nature of index as of now.
Thanks Prabhu sir for the pin point analysis. Apart from the blog, I also live to follow your live market commentary on index movement.
Wow!! Excellent analysis.. please keep this content coming in.. also pls give some write up on bank Nifty..
Waiting for your analysis. As always very helpful and informative.
Thanks once again.
Well written. Is Nifty currently in no trade zone.
Really very informative and detailed analysis.
It helps entire sp students to trade on nifty… very informative.. Sir thankx for guiding us…
Good to know sir, the smallcaps and midcaps struggles a lot kept money in the pocket for hunting good positional, such updates from you will helps a lot
A very well, analysed and summarised comment. you are already doing a good job by training all of us and many more to come, and on top of that this blog is icing on the cake. This is helping us in making sure that what we doing in our analysis is right or wrong, on top of that it gives us a strong support that helps us in getting our targets achieved. Keep up the good work sir as this motivates us further. thanks for all the support 🙏🙏🙏.
Good picture of what may happen in the coming days!! This article really alerts us and prepares us for trading war(intraday)!!
Really useful information for learners, I suppose it will help me in learning the Market.
Will watch the said levels
Very nice , informative and point to point analysis.This will help all Sp students to know when to take the positions.
Great job Sir👍👍
Wonderful writeup and helpful to understand the support and resistance on monthly basis and also the direction it can travel….tq sir
Such a detailed and easy to understand stuff on the market movement. And it is for free!!
Crystal clear stuff. Great job SP team!! 🙂
Very good analysis on Nifty. Useful information. Thanks Prabhu sir 🙂
Very good analysis
Good analysis. Going by the trade wars, nifty may slip to 10,800 levels and bounce back to 11,400 levels. Then again it may touch new lows a.nd break 10,000. May go down till 9,500 levels to touch the old trend line starting from 2008 lows. But this msy happen in couple of months and not
Such a detailed and easy to understand stuff on the market movement. And it is for free!!
Crystal clear stuff. Great job SP team!! 🙂
Wonderful analysis from SP . The one and only place where we can get eye opening about stock market . The analysis of nifty movement always precision from SP. We are alive in market today just bcz of this kind of glimpse by SP and team. Keep going and let’s rock…
Daily Nifty analysis is one of the best part of stock Phoenix, helps in deciding trade directions for next day not only on nifty but other stock as well
Comment:
Thank you for the detailed analysis on Nifty.
It is suggested that a list of causative factors be given, eg, policy announcements, monsoon, movement of INR against USD in the recent past, etc be given which affect price movements.
Nice write up sir. Easily understandable by any one. Thanks a lot.
Excellent analysis in simplest possible way
Wow Again, not chunk a whole book for the month of sep is there to read. Thnx SP.
It’s really helpful
Thank you SP
Nice analysis. So without getting into emotion we need to look at 10954 level.. keep in mind atleast two consecutive days nifty must hold upward or downward number from 10954 figure.
Beautifully written with the numbers and logic being explained clearly.
Thanks for analysis sir. Your analysis always help us in picking trades. Will be waiting for your video.
Thanks for a wonderful analysis… Helps check whether what we analyse is correct or not. The poor GDP numbers and auto sales numbers may have an negative effect on Nifty and hope that the downside of 10600 is protected.
CommentExcellent write up and heads up. Thanks a lot for the monthly picture
Really usefull information. V Good.
Sir Bullish is what we all are hoping too…has been bearish for a very long time
Really a great analysis on the technical perspective and very much delighted to be part of the training batch which gave a different view about the stock market.
Once again thanks SP on providing your views which will certainly help us to plan for this month well in advance.
Yes it appears
Thank u sir
Every time when I read artical about nifty levals,
It makes me ready for any moves of market.
Thanks to prabhu sir and SP team for sharing.
Thank you sir for such detailed analysis
It will help a lot
Very nice analysis Sir.
Thanks
Prabhu Sir, your analysis are always helpful in deciding the moves for coming week. Thank you for the analysis
Wonderful. Very easy to understand. I hope you don’t have to make a new Fibonacci level and edit this blog if nifty respects 10637 levels.
Very well explained sir….thanks for the knowledge
Its really helpfull for a person who trading indepently.Thanks a lot sir for giving knowledge every day.
wonderful narration , anybody can understand it,, thank you sir
Very nice , informative and to the point technical analysis.
Thank you sir
Informative and detailed analysis. Thanks sir for providing such a wonderful knowledge !!
Useful analysis. will watchout for the levels
thankyou sir
Useful analysis. will watchout for the levels
thankyou sir
a very important and useful sharing of knowledge from prabhu sir, it will be very much helpful for the month of sept.
great job!
Good analysis… Its really helpful..
Very Good analysis & too in simple language.
Great analysis by SP team. It will be Really helpful through out the month of September 2019
Superb analysis!! it helps to trade wisely. It reflects your industry experience Sir! And you make it so understandable to anybody regardless of their experience!
Good anysis
Keep it up
Providing excellent knowledge about Nifty makes us to understand the market situations and we can cautiously enter into the trades, I cannot see anyone who can analysis Nifty movement better than you sir, Thanks a lot.
Excellent article about the Nifty levels…..will help us in staying alert at the mentioned levels & trade carefully…Thank you sir for your frequent updates!!
Great Analysis As Always!!!!!
Keep Up The Good Work.
Very informative Blog with complete explanation of findings.
Very useful analysis..
Very Informative Blog.
Thanks
Very Much informative.. Thank you for explaining in detail…
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